© shutterstock
A recent study in China combined health impact and economic assessment methods to evaluate heatwave-related PTBs burden in dimensions of health, human capital and economic costs. Simulated scenarios showed that about a quarter (25.8%) of heatwave-related PTBs per year on average can be attributed to climate change, which in turn results in human capital losses of estimated $1 billion costs. These findings emphasize once again strict climate mitigation policies and are a strong call for more sufficient adaptions reducing heatwave detriments for newborns.
Developing fetuses and young children are biologically and psychologically sensitive to heat stress and might suffer short- and long-term consequences on their physical health and human capital. Numerous findings from previous studies indicate that in particular preterm infants have a higher risk for a range of health impairments later in life, such as those related to cognition, education and social behaviour. These additional impairments also need to be taken into account to better evaluate the true burden and human capital losses due to climate change and heatwave-induced preterm birth.
In the current study, the researchers observed an increase in heatwave-related PTBs in the period 2010-2020 in China. The number of attributable PTBs per million live births was higher in very warm regions like Guizhou, Shanxi and Sichuan as compared to other regions. Due to the broad concept of human capital and the lack of consistent measurements, three dimensions (i.e., health, cognition, and noncognition) of human capital were combined, and the most common consequences of PTB for each dimension were selected to comprehensively measure the impact of PTBs on human capital. For each category, the following short- and long-term dimensions have been considered separately: neonatal mortality, childhood asthma, type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus (health dimension), decreased IQ (cognition), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD, non-cognition). The average heatwave-related PTBs per year under the present climate conditions (13,262 cases) may result in 936 cases of additional health outcomes, 1,329 cases of additional non-cognitive problems, and more than 111,400 lost IQ points, or 7.4 reduced IQ points per 1,000 live births. The total economic cost of human capital losses caused by annual PTBs, excluding neonatal mortality, has been estimated at nearly $3 billion (in 2015 dollars). This is three times the direct cost of heatwave-related PTB, which was about $1 billion USD per year. In comparison, the expected losses of human capital due to human-induced climate change are also considerable, at over USD 1 billion per year.
This study shows that human-induced climate change is already having a significant impact on PTB health and human capital. These results should give decision-makers a further impulse to establish and implement strict climate protection measures, which will lead to significant health co-benefits by avoiding early-life health damages and associated human capital losses in the long term.
Paper available at: Nature Communications
Full list of authors: Yali Zhang, Shakoor Hajat, Liang Zhao, Huiqi Chen, Liangliang Cheng, Meng Ren, Kuiying Gu, John S. Ji, Wannian Liang & Cunrui Huang
